Should You Buy Points Just Because They’re on Sale? Let’s Do the Math

Ever get one of those emails from Hilton or Marriott promising you “bonus points” if you buy some? I got one from Hilton this week dangling a 100% bonus. Basically, if you buy 5,000 points or more, Hilton will throw in an equal number of bonus points. Free points? Sounds great, right?
Well, not so fast.
The real key to using points and miles is knowing what they're actually worth. Without that, you're just guessing whether to use points or pay cash—and nobody likes playing hotel roulette.
I’m planning a trip to San Diego next month, so I decided to test this bonus offer. I looked up a two-night stay at the Hilton San Diego Bayfront. Here's what I found: the room costs either $820.18 if I pay cash or 176,000 Hilton points if I use rewards. That gives me a redemption rate of about 0.47 cents per point ($820.18/176,000 points) x 100. Not exactly setting the world on fire.

Now, let’s circle back to the Hilton promo. To get 180,000 points, I’d need to buy 90,000. Hilton matches that with another 90,000. Sounds like a sweet deal, until you see the price tag: $900 (plus "applicable taxes and fees"). That means I’d be paying over 0.5 cents per point ($900/180,000 points) x 100.

Translation? Buying points would actually cost me more than just booking the room outright. Purchase rate 0.5 cents x 176,000 points needed = $880.00, vs paying the room outright at $820.18.
So, is the bonus worth it?
Not in my opinion. Unless you’re topping off your account for a specific trip or you’ve got your eyes on a hard-to-book dream hotel, buying points like this with hotel programs doesn't always add up. Bonus or no bonus. The Points Guy offers a free awards calculator to help you make this decision based on the specific hotel or airfare program here.
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